IT: Focus on commentary, not Q3

Low hopes

- Harsha Jethmalani

The December quarter (Q3FY25) is seasonally weak for the Indian IT sector due to furloughs and fewer working days. Thus, no fireworks are anticipated. So, Q3 results would offer little help in gauging demand momentum.

Even so, wide-held expectations are that year-on-year (y-o-y) revenue growth will start gradually improving from Q3 onwards, aided by lower project cancellations, the beginning of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, and the end of uncertainties surrounding the US election. However, sequential performance will be muted. "We expect aggregate revenue growth for our coverage to moderate slightly in Q3 to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) constant currency (3.9% y-o-y constant currency), given the usual furloughs," said a 31 December Jefferies India report.

Tier-II companies would continue to outpace tier-I firms.