Moment of Reckoning

In an era of blurred accountability and proxy warfare, India's Operation Sindoor has redefined the notion of deterrence—not only as passive threat, but as credible, calibrated force

- ADITYA SINHA THE WRITER WRITES ON GEOPOLITICAL AND MACROECONOMIC ISSUES

Deterrence's effectiveness depends not only on military capability but on the credibility of intent; the adversary must believe that the state will act, and that such action will impose real and tangible costs. As Thomas Schelling observed in The Strategy of Conflict, deterrence rests on the manipulation of risk. The threat of retaliation need not be certain, but it must be believable. This credibility, however, is not static. It must be reinforced through action, clarity, and above all, the demonstrable capability of the state to follow through on what it signals. Deterrence is thus both psychological and institutional. Deterrence rests on the assumption of rational actors and clear lines of accountability. But when violence is outsourced to proxies and the state functions as a silent enabler, that logic collapses. Introducing non-state actors allows the sponsoring state to invoke plausible deniability, making deterrence harder to calibrate and easier to subvert. The United States, despite its global power, has found that even two decades of its war on terror have not produced lasting deterrence against dispersed, ideologically motivated actors. Israel, too, with all its military superiority and intelligence prowess, has struggled to deter Hamas.

This makes deterrence fluid and unstable. Attribution is ambiguous, escalation is asymmetric, and conventional rules of engagement become insufficient. Therefore, the deterrent posture must evolve into a mode of strategic improvisation, where punishment is not only proportionate but communicative, intended to shape behaviour through uncertainty.

Also, it is naive to believe that even the most forceful response can permanently prevent future attacks. Deterrence, instead, becomes a way of holding chaos at bay, of imposing enough cost to disrupt the adversary's rhythm and forcing hesitation into their calculus.