Uncertainties to push BOP into deficit

More money is expected to flow out of the Philippines over 2025 and 2026, as the country is projected to import more than it exports and the services sector is seen to underperform, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

- BY DERCO ROSAL

“The Philippine balance of payments (BOP) position is projected to be weaker in 2025 to 2026 due to slower global trade and subdued investor confidence linked to increased uncertainty in global trade policy and geopolitical developments,” the BSP said in a March 24 statement.

As per the BSP’s latest forecast as of the first quarter of 2025, the country’s BOP position—measured by the sum of the country’s current, capital, and financial accounts—would post a $4-billion deficit this year, equivalent to 0.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the BSP forecasted a $2.1-billion BOP surplus for 2025.

This deficit would be driven by a wider current account shortfall due to higher trade deficits and weaker revenues from services.