Foreign outbreaks point to bad flu season

Last year’s flu season was the worst California had seen in years — and state health officials warn this year could potentially be just as bad.

- BY RONG-GONG LIN II

PHARMACIST Ani Martirosyan prepares an immunization. California health officials believe the flu will be the dominant virus fueling hospital admissions.

(BRIAN VAN DER BRUG Los Angeles Times)

Although forecasting disease isn’t an exact science, there are some troubling signs. The flu has made an early comeback in Asia and quickly swelled to epidemic proportions in Japan and Taiwan.

And stateside, some experts are sounding the alarm about continued lower uptake of the flu vaccine. There’s also the possibility of a seasonal COVID-19 wave—the likes of which didn’t materialize last winter, but had been common since the pandemic—as well as a simultaneous rise in respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.

California health officials have previously forecast that this fall-and-winter respiratory virus season is expected to be similar to last year’s. If that’s the case, flu would again be the dominant virus fueling hospital admissions compared with COVID-19 and RSV. During the winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24, COVID made up the majority of California hospital admissions caused by respiratory viruses.

“Having people get vaccinated is going to be really key for influenza,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert.

While flu, COVID and RSV are currently at low levels in California, there are signs that respiratory virus season is starting to gear up as temperatures drop and people spend more time indoors.

Compared with rates recorded in the summer, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has seen increases in people reporting cough, fever, chills, aches, sore throat and runny nose, officials said, citing a text-based health survey.

The test positivity rate for rhinoviruses and enteroviruses, which typically cause the common cold, is 19.87%. That’s higher than that of the virus that causes COVID-19, 4.2%; or the flu, 1.04%.