When America Joins Israel's War With Iran

An extended conflict will lead to regional instability and unsettle New Delhi's plans for broader engagement with West Asia

- Happymon Jacob

The US bombing of key Iranian nuclear facilities Sunday will have significant geopolitical implications for regional stability, global geopolitics, and India's immediate and medium-term interests. However, for now, it doesn't appear that the US-Israeli attack on Iran is likely to go all the way, making it improbable that Iran will be completely denuclearized or that the Islamic regime in Tehran will fall. A severely weakened Iranian regime is likely to respond with military and grey-zone tactics, increasing political and economic instability in the region. Moreover, neither Israel nor the US appear to have an endgame in mind in this war.

There are at least six key implications of this ongoing war.

First, West Asia is likely to revert to a period of chaos, conflict, and uncertainty, at least for some time. Despite Iran's strained relations with many of its neighbours, the US decision to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and join Israel's military campaign will make it difficult for other regional powers to resume efforts to normalize relations with Tel Aviv. Iran and its regime may not be popular in the Sunni strongholds of West Asia, but neither is Israel, especially given its actions in Gaza and the ongoing humanitarian tragedy there. Russia and China are likely to increase their geopolitical influence in the region, and neither will miss opportunities to challenge Israel and the US, making the regional balance even more complex and unpredictable.