What Pahalgam and After Revealed About South Asia

While Our Decision Not To Be Part Of Any Military Alliances Is A Conscious Choice, And Perhaps The Right One, We Must Also Be Conscious Of Its Consequence. Our Wars Will Be Ours Alone To Fight

- Happymon Jacob

The Indian response to the Pahalgam terror attack and its aftermath has by itself not fundamentally altered the regional geopolitics, but it has highlighted some important aspects of South Asia's evolving balance of power. The Indo-Pak military standoff this time differs from the previous episodes and acts as a shadow of the region's future geopolitical trajectories.

Even though it was the US that reportedly made midnight calls to India and Pakistan to bring an end to the conflict which Washington mistakenly assumed was escalating to nuclear levels, what the standoff makes abundantly clear is that the structure of the regional balance of power has changed. It is safe to say that China has replaced the US as the most consequential power in South Asia.

While the US continues to be the most powerful military actor globally, geopolitical influence depends on both power and intent. Currently, the US appears to lack a clear strategic purpose for the region and, as a result, Washington today is a mere shadow of what it used to be in the region. Beijing has more or less replaced Washington. As a military supplier, arbiter, diplomatic presence, and economic heavyweight, China is well placed to shape the region's events.

China will seek to influence the outcomes of regional military conflicts, diplomatic standoffs or political contestations either through provision of high-tech weaponry, as we saw in the recent conflict, or through direct diplomatic involvement or economic pressure. While Beijing's growing influence was already evident in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific, the length of China's shadow from a military-matters standpoint in this round of India-Pakistan conflict was a revelation.