Price of misalignment in the West Asia conflict

India’s strategic partners started a war that worsened its regional security environment, torpedoed its economy, cost Indian lives, empowered Pakistan, and cemented China’s big power status. And New Delhi didn’t —or couldn't — shape the war's outcome

- Avinash Paliwal

‘It's signed ... this was not easy,’ US President Donald Trump said after signing a 14-point “memorandum of understanding” to end America and Israel’s war against Iran.

Primarily mediated by Pakistan along with Qatar, the crux of this agreement is that Iran will not build or procure nuclear weapons in return for status quo ante at the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran will get “at least $300 billion” for its “reconstruction and development’, the US will lift “all types of sanctions”, and Israel will halt military operations in Lebanon.

The final deal is yet to be signed, and the agreement's endurance is questionable. But there is no mistaking that Iran has won the war and the US, along with Israel and its Gulf partners, has lost it.

The termination of military operations is good for India’s economic and strategic stability. But it raises a question: Was New Delhi's partiality towards the losing side worth it? This question is not about the false worship of concepts like strategic autonomy, nor about singularly burdening India with the weight of international norms that other States are unwilling to uphold even though common sense dictates they should. It is neither a debate about India’s ability, desirability, or suitability to mediate. There is a deeper issue: India’s strategic partners started a war that worsened its regional security environment, torpedoed its economy, cost Indian lives, empowered Pakistan, and cemented China’s big power status. And New Delhi didn’t — or couldn't — shape the war's outcome. There are five lessons for India here.