Humble coconut oil turns into a luxury on rising demand

MUMBAI Any major shift away from coconut oil could drive up prices of alternatives, including palm kernel oil for industry and palm, soy, and sunflower oils for households. While coconut oil is popular in Asia, demand for copra, coconut cream, and milk is strong in Britain, China and Europe

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Prices of coconut oil are surging in Asia, where top consumer India leads the charge with a tripling in two years, as supply shortages and booming demand for the nutrient-rich water enclosed within turn the kitchen staple into a premium product.

The edible oil is slipping out of the reach of price-conscious consumers, and those accustomed to its distinctive flavour, deeply embedded in regional cuisine, must search harder to find alternatives. "I will switch to the more affordable refined sunflower oil for everyday cooking and save coconut oil for dishes where its flavour is absolutely irreplaceable," said Leelamma Cherian, who lives in India’s southern state of Kerala.

The price surge that began in the second half of 2024 was accelerated by output disruptions across major producer nations from India to Southeast Asia, caused by seasons of lower rainfall, extended heat, and more ravages by pests and disease. Prices in India have nearly tripled in less than two years, to a record 423,000 rupees ($4,840) a metric ton, while global prices surged to an all-time high of $2,990 per ton over the same period. A group of producer nations, the International Coconut Community (ICC), says growing demand in the face of production limits will keep second-half global prices in the range of $2,500 to $2,700, well over the 2023 figure of about $1,000.

Coconut oil supplies usually improve in Southeast Asia in the second half, and new season output will help ease prices off records, said a Singapore-based vegetable oil trader. “Still, prices probably won't drop below $2,000 anytime soon,” he said.