How realistic is Macron's perception of threat?

French President Emmanuel Macron announced on July 14, the Bastille Day, marking the outbreak of the 1789 French Revolution, that France will increase its defence spending in the next two years by 6.5 billion euros (3 billion euros in 2026 and 3.5 billion euros in 2027), and in 2027 France's total defence spending would be 64 billion euros, double the amount that it was in 2017.

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Macron declared in his Bastille Day speech: “Since 1945, freedom has never been so threatened, and never so seriously. To be free in this world, we must be feared. To be feared, we must be powerful.” He appealed to the people: “The nation needs you. Every French man and woman must be cognizant of the threat around us. We all need to make sacrifices. Freedom has a price tag.”

It is an aggressive speech from the leader of one of the leading democratic countries in Europe. And he is proposing to arm the country because Macron thinks that France is threatened. He has identifies the sources of threat as Russia, terrorism and online attacks. Russian attack on Ukraine is seen by western European democracies like France as a threat to democracy in Europe. It seems to be a rhetorical stance, to justify defence spending.