Five predictions shaping 2025 key election races

NEW YORK

- Eric Garcia, The Independent

For most of this year, the only evidence that public opinion has turned against Trump was an occasional special election or a judicial race in Wisconsin-approval ratings, aside.

But, as Inside Washington broke down last month, the gubernatorial races and other major-ticket statewide races. And it doesn't get much better than a mayor's race in New York that could determine if socialist progressive insurgent Zohran Mamdani can have a clear mandate to govern, two moderate Democratic congresswomen can win governorships in states chock full of suburbanites and voters of color — and whether Democrats can redraw their congressional map in California, which would bolster Gavin Newsom's presidential aspirations.

Inside Washington has been following these races ravenously, checking out fundraising, polling and early voting. While occasionally we get it wrong and we promptly admit it, here’s our boldest predictions for tomorrow night's elections in the heart of Dixie, the Garden State, the Big Apple and the Golden State.

Virginia: Can Democrats win back the suburbs?This is the easiest one for the ol' crystal ball. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer Congresswoman who turned a congressional district in the suburbs of Richmond blue in 2018, will crush Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

While Sears has gone all-in on particular community, it has fallen flat amid a government shutdown and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency slashing federal jobs, which particularly hurts employees in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC. Sears also fell for Spanberger's bait in a debate when she said “that’s not discrimination” when Spanberger pointed out she would ban same-sex marriage.