Democratic hopes rising for '26 Senate control

The Republican rush to add congressional seats in Texas and other red states reflects the bipartisan consensus that the main 2026 battleground will be the Democratic effort to curb the Trump administration by regaining control of the House.

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It assumes the GOP's current 53-47 margin in the Senate is relatively safe, barring a political cataclysm, since the Democrats have so few potential targets for gaining the four seats they need to win control, according to the Tribune News Service.

Recent weeks, however, have seen an uptick in Democratic hopes that what earlier had seemed highly unlikely might just be possible, though the odds remain against them.

That's because of their candidate recruitment successes in two potential 2026 targets - North Carolina and Ohio; an unexpected GOP retirement in Iowa; and Republican uncertainties in Texas and Maine. In North Carolina, a state where Republicans have foiled Democratic hopes in recent Senate races, two factors changed the potential dynamic this summer.

First, popular two-term former Democratic governor Roy Cooper announced his candidacy for the Senate. Then, the incumbent Republican senator, Thom Tillis, decided to retire after attracting the enmity of President Donald Trump for opposing his major legislative initiative.