Big central banks' forecasting lens gets fogged by US tariffs

Unpredictable White House tariff rhetoric and its impact on currency markets, oil prices and the inflation outlook have put central banks across the world in a tight spot.

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The European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday and looks set to pause, Switzerland appears to be moving back towards negative rates, Japan's resolve to drop ultra-easy monetary policy is wobbling, and baffling US data could keep the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode.

Here's a look at where IO developed-market central banks stand.

The Swiss National Bank next meets on June 19, and traders see a one in three chance that it will pull rates back into negative territory from 0.25% currently after consumer prices fell for the first time in four years.

The safe-haven Swiss franc has gained 10% against the dollar so far this year on geopolitical and market volatility. That's challenging Switzerland's export-heavy economy and cheapened imports, giving the SNB reasons to be wary about deflation.

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.75% on Wednesday and said another cut might be necessary if the economy weakened in the face of tariffs.

The BoC has held rates for a second time in a row after an aggressive cutting cycle which shrunk rates by 225 basis points over nine months. Markets price in a roughly 85% chance of another quarter-point cut by September.