Peering into the future of an uncertain world

OVER THE PAST few decades, humanity has achieved what earlier generations would have called miracles.

- RAJAT M NAG

Global poverty has fallen dramatically. In Asia, especially China and India, growth has been transformative. China’s per-capita income increased sixfold between the mid-1990s and mid-2010s, and India’s tripled. Hundreds of millions were lifted out of poverty. Globally, people today are healthier, better educated, and live longer than ever before.And yet, there is another more sobering story. Inequality has widened, trust in institutions is fraying, and geopolitics feels more fractured than in decades.

Nations are building new walls — physical, economic, and ideological. There are ambitions to move to a unipolar or a bipolar world order where only multipolarity would serve the greater common interests.

How do we sustain human progress in such an uncertain world? Five powerful forces will shape the answer: global economic shifts, productivity and innovation, inequality, demography, and artificial intelligence.

Global shifts

The global economy, recovering from pandemic shocks, supply-chain disruptions, and inflation, remains fragile. Advanced economies are slowing, constrained by aging populations and tight monetary policies. The US has shown resilience, but protectionism and tariffs are casting shadows. Europe struggles with energy costs and sluggish productivity.