Trump is already losing

It looks like Donald Trump's "craziness" is already polluting sentiment, not just with the US' trading partners (and erstwhile friends) but importantly, with increasing numbers of Americans who were looking forward to Great Times—a soaring stock market, lower prices, and more well-paying jobs.

- JAMAL MECKLAI

The Dow is down nearly 8% since it peaked at 44,882 on January 30, and worse, it has fallen despite companies reporting strong results—both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages. It had fallen even further before rebounding sharply (possibly as a result of the US Congress approving a bill to continue government borrowing) on Friday from a long-term support line. Nonetheless, it had its worst week since 2023, with the indices declining for four weeks in a row. Again, while the 10-year yield is down some 20 basis points since Don Day, the US Federal Reserve is, hardly surprisingly, off balance on inflation, and few analysts are expecting rates to come down in the near term. The consumer price index increased by 0.2% in February, slightly below expectations, but most Americans are not as concerned with inflation as with the absolute level of prices—the chances of them coming down, particularly in view of Trump's tariff shenanigans and Elon Musk's equally uncertain cost cuts, are zero.