What's gone wrong for Welsh Labour?

Barring a dramatic reversal in fortunes, the party that's been in power since the Welsh Assembly began in 1999 is due for a drubbing at next year's Senedd polls. Chief reporter Owen Hughes looks at the reasons why

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Drakeford smiles after winning the Cardiff West constituency in May 2021 as Labour returned to power in the Senedd – but the party's had little to smile about in the years since

SCROLL back to May 2021 and Welsh Labour were buoyant. The party has defied expectations - and polling to secure 30 of the 60 seats at the Senedd election of that year.

It was seen as tacit approval by a majority in Wales of the way First Minister Mark Drakeford had steered the country through the pandemic although he was certainly not without his critics.

But four years on and a recent ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University poll has put their support at just 14% - down from nearly 40% on the constituency vote in the 2021 election. And this wasn't a one-off either with previous polls showing a drop-off in support in the nation they've been in power in since the first Welsh Assembly in 1999.

When you look for reasons why it is impossible to ignore the wider UK picture where concerns over illegal and legal immigration - as well as a general frustration with the mainstream political parties - has fuelled support for Reform, at the expense of Labour and the Tories.

It is the same story in Wales with the Conservatives also floundering alongside their traditional rival, with just 11% in the same recent poll, down from about 25% at the last Senedd election.

The difference on this side of the border is that Plaid are also eating up voters, going neck and neck in polling with Reform on around 30% each.

This twin threat has seen Welsh Labour polling behind the wider UK Labour figure something fairly unheard of in the nation of NHS founding father Nye Bevan.

It's why this can't be dismissed as a blowback from the UK situation, with plenty of the responsibility for their current travails lying on the shoulders of politicians on this side of Offa's Dyke.