The third-term gambit: Mbalula’s strategic move

ANC SUCCESSION POLITICS

- ANDA MBIKWANA

ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL Fikile Mbalula

(ITUMELENG ENGLISH Independent Newspapers)

IN WHAT appears to be a carefully orchestrated political manoeuvre, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has opened a new chapter in the party's succession debate.

Speaking at the Mpumalanga Provincial General Council, Mbalula made what seasoned observers recognise as a strategically significant statement regarding President Cyril Ramaphosa’s political future within the ANC.

Addressing delegates in isiXhosa, Mbalula acknowledged that Ramaphosa’s second term as ANC President is approaching its conclusion. But rather than treating this as a natural transition point, he pointedly noted that “there is nothing that is prohibiting him to serve for the third term as the ANC President.” This seemingly casual observation carries profound implications for the party’s internal power dynamics.

The statement is remarkable for three reasons. First, it explicitly frames Ramaphosa’s tenure as nearing a transition moment, establishing temporal urgency. Second, it introduces the prospect of continuity rather than change, suggesting momentum exists to retain Ramaphosa at the party's helm. Third, and most crucially, it invokes the absence of constitutional prohibition - a legal argument that effectively legitimises what might otherwise be viewed as an unprecedented consolidation of power.

Understanding Mbalula’s gambit requires distinguishing between two distinct offices: the presidency of the Republic and the presidency of the ANC. South Africa's Constitution is unambiguous - Section 88(2) limits any individual to two terms as head of state. Ramaphosa cannot legally serve a third term as President of the Republic.