IMF lowers PHL growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY is seen to grow below target until next year, as higher US tariffs dampened exports and investments, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday.

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In a statement for its Article IV Consultation with the Philippines, the IMF trimmed its economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.1% for 2025 from 5.4% previously.

If realized, this will be the fourth straight year that the Philippines will miss its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target.

The IMF also lowered its 2026 growth projection for the Philippines to 5.6% from 5.7% previously. This is also below the government's 6%-7% target for 2026 until 2028.

"The Philippines' growth is expected to slow to 5.1% in 2025 as increasing tariffs weigh on exports and investment, before picking up moderately to 5.6% in 2026, a downward revision relative to previous forecasts due to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in (the third quarter)," the IMF said.

The Philippine economy expanded by 4% in the third quarter, the weakest growth posted since the same quarter in 2011 excluding the pandemic slowdown, as the widening flood control scandal curtailed consumer and government spending.

The country's GDP growth stood at 5% as of September.