Exports and life expectancy: some global trends

Next week, on April 2, US President Donald Trump’s “tariff reciprocity” — tariff equalization with major trade partners which have high tariffs on US exports to their countries — will take effect. The fear is that such a move by Trump will cause a major upheaval in global trade.

- BIENVENIDO S. OPLAS, JR.

The top three largest merchandise (or goods) exporters in the world are China, the US, and Germany. China and Germany have regular trade surpluses while the US has a perennial trade deficit, an average of around $2.7 billion per day in 2024.

In terms of export market share, China, which joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) only in 2001, has expanded its share from 7.2% of total world exports in 2005 to 14.5% in 2024. The US has a flat share of 8.5% of the total, while Germany and Japan had declining shares of 9.2% and 5.6% in 2005 to 7.1% and 2.9% in 2024, respectively. Many other industrial countries have similar declining shares in total exports (see Table 1).

China overtook the US in 2007 — $1.22 trillion vs $1.15 trillion. One explanation is that this is due to the difference in power generation. From 2006 to 2007, the US added 101 terawatt-hours (TWh) to its grid while China added 416 TWh. China’s momentum continued and by 2011, China overtook the US in power generation, with 4,713 TWh vs 4,363 TWh, respectively. High electricity production means a high capacity to manufacture and mass produce almost anything. I am amazed by the fast economic performance and energy generation of China.