China may respond to PHL’s growing military ties with Australia and Canada

TENSIONS in the South China Sea could intensify in the coming months as China weighs possible military and economic countermeasures against the Philippines, following Manila’s deepening security cooperation with Australia and Canada, political analysts said.

- By Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio

The move signals a strategic recalibration by the Philippines, but also risks provoking a more assertive response from Beijing, they added.

Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a diplomacy lecturer at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said Beijing is likely to interpret the recent trilateral naval drills involving the Philippines, Australia and Canada as a direct challenge to its dominance in the contested waters — one of the world’s busiest maritime routes.

“We can expect that Beijing will further undertake maneuvers geared towards showing its might and reinforcing its strategic position within the disputed waters,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “Although the Philippines and Australia do not view such joint operations as a clarion call for armed conflict, China may view it otherwise.”

On Saturday, the three nations conducted joint naval drills in the South China Sea, off the coast of El Nido, Palawan province. The exercises formed part of Exercise Alon (wave) 2025, which Canberra has identified as its biggest military engagement of the year. The drills came just days after the second Philippines — Australia defense ministers’ meeting in Manila.

During the meeting, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr. and Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles reaffirmed their countries’ commitment to deepening defense cooperation, underscoring the 2016 international arbitral ruling that voided China’s sweeping claims over the South China Sea.

While the Philippine government maintains that these drills are not designed to provoke China, Mr. Cortez noted that Beijing could interpret them as an aggressive move, prompting it to scale up both military and economic pressure.