What is Asim Munir thinking?

Kashmir's return to normalcy, for Pakistan Army Chief Gen Asim Munir, had to be reversed. Pahalgam wasn't plotted in the week since his speech; it must have taken weeks, if not months, of planning

- SHEKHAR GUPTA

Nobody can be sure why a Pahalgam-level provocation was carried out, and at this time. Or, precisely on April 22. We can, however, offer some educated analysis and connect a few two and twos.

The first piece in this jigsaw is the April 16 speech by General Asim Munir. The bombast over the two-nation theory and Islamic history apart, the relevant element was the reference to Kashmir—and the claim that "it is our jugular vein, we will not forget it."

Kashmir as the jugular (shah rag) is standard fare of Pakistan Studies, a compulsory subject in Pakistani curriculum. But no army chief had made such a loud commitment on Kashmir for years. I'd read it as Munir bringing Kashmir back on the agenda. The tone reflected anger, desperation—and, if I may add, alarm.

Why alarm? Think another date. India was to launch the Vande Bharat Express between Delhi and Srinagar on April 19, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi was expected.

That the inauguration was postponed because of bad weather is beside the point. Munir did not know this while making his speech. This train, the coming out party of Naya Kashmir, brought in that urgency and desperation.

Things have been stabilising in Jammu & Kashmir over the past three years; a peaceful election has been held with widespread participation. Normalcy reflects in steadily rising tourist numbers—2.95 million in 2024, with estimates suggesting the figure surpassing 3.2 million in 2025.