China's demographic retreat

Our own demographic dividend will not last forever

- AKASH PRAKASH

Most of us know that China faces a population problem. Rooted in the one-child policy and changing social and cultural norms, the country has huge demographic challenges ahead. However, what was not clear (to me at least) is just how serious those challenges are, their visible impact within a decade, and how the data is only getting worse with every revision.

To start with some hard facts: Population growth in China has already turned negative. In both 2022 and 2023, its population actually shrank. As recently as 2019, the consensus was that China would reach a peak population of 1.45 billion in 2031. However, the population peaked in 2021, a full decade earlier, at around 1.4 billion. Though some commentators have cast doubts even on this 1.4 billion number, arguing the actual population is probably 100 million lower than the official statistics.

The fertility rate in China, at 1, is now lower than that of the US (1.6) and even Japan (1.2). Would you have ever thought that China would have a lower fertility rate than Japan? Despite the one-child policy being formally dropped in 2016, China's fertility rate has continued to decline. In fact, post2016, the birth rate has taken another sharp downturn. This seems to indicate a more deep rooted issue than just the one-child policy. Fewer women in China seem willing to marry and have children, instead choosing to focus on their careers. Apart from the changing social norms towards marriage, China currently has 30 million more men than women, a consequence of the one-child policy and prevalent gender bias-a fundamental problem with no solution.