Will Myanmar's military plan succeed?

Following the recent devastating earthquake, Myanmar’s military junta leaders are facing increasing pressure at home and abroad.

- Kavi Chongkittavorn

Despite this, they are moving forward with their five-step plan, while still implementing the Asean peace plan. The most crucial part of their plan is to hold a general election between late December 2025 and early January 2026. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has already promised this to leaders from India, China, Russia, Belarus and Asean countries.

For the Tatmadaw, this election is considered the most deliverable exit strategy. They believe that holding any election, even a rigged one, will make them more legitimate. The junta generals know that other countries and international organisations have accepted elections elsewhere, even when they were not completely inclusive, free and fair, as long as some basic rules were followed.

As of mid-2025, 80 political parties had registered with the military-appointed election commission, up from 53 parties. There could be more as the election approaches.

However, the planned voting will only occur in areas they control — mainly cities and parts of central Myanmar—where they claim voters will be safe. However, experts believe only about 145 out of Myanmar’s 330 townships will be able to vote. Recent reports indicate the military now controls only 53% of the country, with the remaining areas either contested or held by resistance groups.

Since taking power in February 2021, the military has extended the nationwide emergency every six months to maintain control. The latest, sixth emergency decree, will end on June 30.

According to sources close to the State Administration Council (SAC), to prepare for the upcoming elections, they plan to terminate the emergency by the end of July 2025. Then, they will transfer power to the National Defence and Security Council, which is expected to appoint U Myint Swe as the chief caretaker.