Tris says war poses downside risks to growth

Thailand’s economic outlook for 2026 is facing growing downside risks as escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, threaten global oil supply and domestic stability, according to Tris Rating.

- NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

While baseline GDP growth is projected at 2.1%, a prolonged conflict could significantly weaken momentum.

Under a three-month disruption scenario, growth mayslowto 1.8%, and in a more severe six-month scenario, it could fall further to 1%, reflecting pressures on private consumption, exports, tourism and foreign direct investment, Tris said in its Country Focus report released yesterday.

At the centre of the risk is the Strait of Hormuz, a choke-point handling around 20% of global crude oil shipments. Thailand remains particularly exposed, importing 92% of its oil consumption, with more than half sourced from the Middle East.