Impacts of Iran war on Southeast Asia

For the most part, Southeast Asia as a region has taken a neutral stance toward the joint attack between the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

Vehicles pass near a billboard with an image of Iranian missiles in Tehran on Monday, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

(MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

Even the Philippines and Thailand, two formal US treaty allies, have distanced themselves, calling for restraint and deescalation.

As Southeast Asia is tradeand export-dependent, the war will have severe repercussions for the region as oil prices rise and international commerce is disrupted. The longer the war goes on, the more regional economies will suffer. The ongoing Middle East conflict will also make it trickier for major Southeast Asian economies that enjoy large trade surpluses with the US — Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines — to negotiate final tariff deals with the second administration of President Donald Trump.

As the home to the world’s largest Muslim country in Indonesia and majority Muslim states in Malaysia and Brunei, with significant minorities in Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand, Southeast Asia will be tracking any religious fallout from the war closely. With its advocacy of the minority Shia sect of Islam and its Islamic revolutionary zeal, as well as state-sponsored terrorist proxies among Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen, the Islamic Republic does not have many supporters among Southeast Asian Muslims.

However, as an underdog under attack, Iran is likely to gain sympathy from Muslims and non-Muslims alike, especially those in the Global South. One major risk from Iran's retaliatory measures is the activation of Iran-inspired and perpetrated terrorism around Southeast Asia.

For example, Hezbollah militants were active in Thailand in the 1990s. If Iran is cornered with no other choice, it could call on its followers to wreak havoc everywhere they can and carry out violent attacks.