The Risk Report

THE MIDDLE EAST HAS LATELY seen a surge of violence and instability. Israel's war with Hamas expanded to include Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels. An insurrection ousted Syria's strongman and replaced him with a shaky Islamist coalition. Israel and the U.S. directly struck Iran, which in recent weeks has faced an intense wave of protests within its borders. The regime has responded with a ferocity remarkable even by Iran's standards.

- Ian Bremmer

But there’s another emerging rivalry with important implications, both inside and beyond the greater Middle East. The partnership between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—once grounded in a common mission to transform the Gulf Cooperation Council countries into a global center for innovation and an engine for growth in finance, tourism, and transport—has passed from intensifying competition for foreign investment to indirect conflict over the region’s security order.