Uncertain Future

The war, which commenced with the Hamas attacks of October 7, is far from over and there is much suffering yet to come

- Jonathan Spyer

THE Hamas assault on Israeli communities in south west Israel changed the Middle East strategic picture with a single stroke.  Until October 7, 2023, the general trend in the region had appeared to be moving toward a certain uneasy stability.  The unrest of the 2010-19 period, mistakenly initially termed the ‘Arab Spring’, had begun to recede. 

Its main outcome had been the fragmentation and partial collapse of governance in a number of Arab states— Yemen, Iraq and Syria most important among them.  But the emergence of dangerous non-state actors, the Islamic State organisation and others, appeared to have been largely curtailed. 

Two broadly identifiable power blocs existed in the region.  These were, firstly, the regional bloc led by the Islamic Republic of Iran. This group of anti-western and anti-stability forces includes Iran itself, its client Hizballah organisation in Lebanon, the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, the Houthis or Ansar Allah movement in Yemen, the Shia militias of Iraq (who underwrite the current Iraqi government), and the Islamic Jihad and Hamas movements among the Palestinians.