Aw, ref

When we're on the wrong side of a result, it can be validating to claim that the outcome was rigged.

- Marc Wilson

I am so looking forward to 2023. It's a Rugby World Cup year and a once-every-four world-cups general election I year. That means people like me get to spam people like you with surveys and other research studies that look at how you vote, how you feel about the All Blacks, and how your feelings about the All Blacks affect how you vote - even whether the election affects how you feel about the All Blacks.

The last time we saw this alignment was in 2011, a home World Cup for us, and ultimately a win after a number of dry years. And the John Key-led National Party took out the election gong. In one of my large survey studies in the lead-up to the election, National voters were also the most optimistic about an All Blacks win, estimating its likelihood at about 72%. Act voters came in second at 69%, while Labour and Green voters were slightly but statistically significantly less optimistic, pegging the odds at 66% and 63% respectively. The most pessimistic? Nope, not New Zealand First voters (also 66%), but the people who said they refuse to vote - at a measly 56%.