CHIRAG'S POWER PLAY

In Bihar’s liminal political spaces—between the BJP’s leadership deficit and the JD(U)’s ebbing influence—Chirag Paswan sees a fault line ripe for exploitation

- AMITABH SRIVASTAVA, Anilesh S. Mahajan

ON JULY 26, UNION MINISTER CHIRAG PASWAN WAS IN GAYA to address a public gathering when he lashed out at the Nitish Kumar-led NDA regime in Bihar. Though he refrained from naming the chief minister, there was no mistaking who his salvo was aimed at—the home department works under Nitish.

Insiders acknowledge that Chirag’s withering critique was no knee-jerk reaction, nor a bargaining ploy for more seats in alliance negotiations. With the Bihar assembly polls slated in October-November, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief is playing a far bigger game.

Chirag's history with Nitish is one of both rivalry and alliance. In 2020, the then undivided LJP fielded candidates in 135 of Bihar's 243 constituencies, most of them against the JD(U) or Janata Dal (United). This delivered a stinging blow, relegating Nitish's party to third place. Yet, the latest attack is less about enacting an encore than about seizing the present moment.

The BJP, despite being the largest party in the state assembly, with 80 MLAs, lacks a local leader with pan-state appeal who can command loyalty. Conversely, Nitish—once lauded as the architect of Bihar's post-2005 resurgence—now appears diminished. Whispers about his health and his grip on power slipping have spurred speculation of an impending leadership vacuum. In this liminal space, Chirag discerns a fault line ripe for exploitation.

THE ELECTORAL PARADOX

Chirag carries both the promise and the weight of his late father Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy. His ambitions to return to Bihar power politics extend beyond undermining a rival; they also expose a certain existential dilemma: the party has been extraordinary in parliamentary elections—sweeping five out of five seats in 2024, six out of six in 2019 and six out of seven in 2014 on vote shares of just 6-8 per cent—yet it has been a disaster in assembly polls, scoring 3, 2 and 1 seat in the past three elections, respectively.