How to Cope With Inflation

WHEN it comes to inflation, the U.S. has been living in a fool’s paradise.

- JAMES K. GLASSMAN

Inflation—that is, the rise in the general level of prices—has been a fact of economic life, averaging 3.3% annually since 1914. But from 2009 to 2020, the consumer price index rose just 2.1% a year. We got used to inflation one-third lower than the historical norm, which is why post-COVID prices have been such a shock.

The best way to drive inflation out of the system is to hike short-term interest rates. Rates had been sitting close to zero from 2009 to 2022, with the exception of a brief period around 2018. Then the Federal Reserve started to increase rates relentlessly—to more than 5% in just two and a half years. The antidote worked, up to a point. Inflation dropped from 8% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2023 and to 2.9% last year. But the Fed’s target is 2%, and it’s having a tough time getting there.

“American inflation looks increasingly worrying,” said a headline in The Economist in February. President Trump was elected, in part, to stop prices from rising so much, and he has been trying. With Elon Musk, he has cut government employment and programs, but prices don’t react quickly to fiscal changes unless they’re so extreme as to cause a recession—an almost certain way to end inflation with a cure as bad as the disease. The president also wants to drive down energy costs by increasing domestic oil drilling, but oil prices are determined by global forces.