WHERE IS THE CAPEX GOING?

“Hardware is anything inside a computer that can be thrown out of the window.”

- PRATIMA HARIGUNANI

As telcos across the world alter their Capex spending, does it signal a permanent shift, reflecting broader strategic transformation amidst new challenges?

That is a running joke in the tech industry. And the maxim has held true. The shifts from mainframes to clients, from huge IT departments to outsourcing, from on-premise to Cloud—these pivots have been possible only because something is ‘detachable’, if not exactly ‘throw-able’.

Incidentally, as telcos enter stormy waters or set sail for new horizons, their heavy ships are also bringing a lot of iron and piling them on the deck. From towers being outsourced to the move towards small cell sites to a thinner Capex purse—a lot of iron is slowly being slipped away from the deck, silently finding its way out of the ship. Maybe it is a manoeuvre to make the ship light enough to swim in tough patches? Maybe it is just spring cleaning to make way for a new kind of metal? Or maybe it is just a ‘wait and watch’ interlude? So why is the Capex going down, and is it from the Starboard side or the Port one?

CAPPEX DIPS, TELCO FLIPS 

A glance at some guidance and announcements in the telco corridors hints at the new graph Capex is taking here. When Verizon shared its capital expenditures for 2024, it etched a downward slope, showing a substantial reduction from USD 23.1 billion in 2022 to USD 18.8 billion in 2023 to about USD 17.0 billion and USD 17.5 billion in 2024.