'Big Shrink' Means Big Shift for Ag

A research series argues farmers need to shift focus to adapt to a shrinking global population.

- Cassidy Walter Business Management Editor [e-mail]

The old saying is, “It’s a small world.” Researchers say it’s about to get even smaller, and farmers of commodities, such as corn and soybeans, must adapt to thrive.

In a report series called “The Big Shrink,” Terrain, a team of economic analysts working on behalf of several Farm Credit associations, is investigating how population decline may impact agriculture. Terrain predicts the global population will peak at 9.38 billion between 2065 and 2070. Some countries, such as China, have already peaked in population, according to Terrain.

Analysts Matt Clark and Matthew Woolf say a global decline in population will compel American agriculture to shift focus from feeding the world through bulk exports, to domestic processing for value-add products in demand domestically and globally.

“I think of the last 50 years as being all about quantity,” Woolf, specialty crop analyst with Terrain, said. “We really increased exports. We increased production. And I see the next 50 years as being about quality.”

Corn's Head Start

Clark, Terrain’s senior rural economy analyst, said the corn industry is better positioned than other grain and oilseed commodities for this paradigm shift because the industry has already embraced value-add processing for ethanol and other products.