Protein demand gaining momentum prior to festive season

The global meat market is closing 2025 with mixed signals across major protein sources. Absa AgriBusiness looks at the supply and demand dynamics influencing prices.

- Absa AgriBusiness

While structural supply strength persists in the meat market, price movements reflect seasonal adjustments, disease risks, and evolving trade dynamics. The Meat Price Index of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows an overall upward trend since early 2024, with bovine and ovine categories leading gains, while poultry and pig meat remain relatively stable. In South Africa, prices across all major proteins have strengthened.

GLOBAL DYNAMICS

Beef

Global beef prices have eased from their September highs, following typical seasonal patterns. In the US, beef prices decreased by about 10% driven by increased herd liquidation, and softer consumer demand.

In Australia, cattle prices lost momentum in October due to dry conditions, although recent rainfall stabilised markets.

Lamb and mutton

Global sheep meat markets were under pressure as slaughter numbers increased sharply in October, up 28% compared to the month prior following a period of strong throughput since August.