Global grains and oilseeds: shifts in trade, supply and demand

In this extract from Absa AgriBusiness's AgriTrends 2025 Autumn Edition outlook, the global production and consumption patterns of grains and oilseeds are analysed, as well as price trends.

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As the global agricultural landscape continues to evolve, 2025 has brought a complex mix of trade disruptions, production recoveries, and shifting consumption patterns that are reshaping the outlook for maize, wheat, and soya beans. From China's strategic sourcing to Brazil's export surge and South Africa's resilient recovery, the grains and oilseeds sector is navigating a dynamic and interconnected environment.

MAIZE

Globally, maize markets are being shaped partly by China's evolving demand and production. Since 2017, China's maize consumption, driven largely by animal feed, has consistently outpaced domestic production, prompting a surge in imports between 2020 and 2023. However, recent improvements in domestic output, efforts to increase on-farm grain storage, and a shrinking hog herd have softened import demand, easing pressure on global prices.

In the US, a record maize crop is expected for the 2025/26 marketing year. While strong export demand from Mexico helped sustain Chicago Board of Trade prices in early 2025, the anticipated bumper harvest is likely to exert downward pressure, especially as South America also gears up for robust production. Locally, South Africa's maize sector has rebounded strongly.