The Online Shopping Bust

E-commerce companies made a costly bet that the pandemic would permanently change consumer behavior

- Paula Dwyer

Did the pandemic forever change how we shop?

The answer seemed obvious in the first half of 2020, when retailers closed their doors to slow the spread of Covid-19, pushing millions to the internet. It looked like a fundamental shift in e-commerce’s trajectory. The thinking was simple: After experiencing the ease of online shopping, why would consumers return to stores?

Turns out they have. In the US, the e-commerce wave has receded. In some categories, such as clothing, the percentage of sales made online is back to where it was before the pandemic, according to an analysis by UBS. For the past five quarters, online growth has trailed the sales gains of the overall retail industry, according to US Census Bureau data.

The S&P 500 has declined 25% in the first nine months of this year, but stocks tied closely to e-commerce have been hit even harder. Amazon .com Inc.’s shares have sunk 32%, knocking half a trillion dollars off its market value. Shopify Inc.’s stock has plunged 80%, for a $143 billion loss in value. And shares of European online retailers Asos Plc and Boohoo Group Plc are down more than 70%.

“Everyone’s thesis was that we moved five years in the future,” says Ed Yruma, a retail analyst for Piper Sandler. “What’s been really interesting is, that’s been wrong.”

It’s tempting to blame the economy for the e-commerce slowdown. Inflation is running at the highest level in four decades, leading the Federal Reserve to sharply raise interest rates and many economists to predict the US will slip into recession. But the latest data show consumer spending overall hasn’t collapsed: Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose a healthy 0.8% in August.