MY CONVERSATIONS WITH BIBEK DEBROY ON VIKSIT BHARAT

THIS ESSAY REFLECTS the ideas articulated by Bibek Debroy in numerous conversations on Viksit Bharat 2047.

- By Aditya Sinha

His central proposition was that the centenary of independence should be treated not as a ceremonial marker but as a developmental horizon. The key task, he argued, was not to predict India's exact condition in 2047, as forecasts are inevitably imprecise in detail, but to prepare the structural foundations today so that India's long arc of growth would converge towards high-income and high-human development status by its hundredth year of freedom.

For philosophical anchoring, he frequently invoked Swami Vivekananda's 1897 lecture, The Future of India. Vivekananda had urged Indians to "drink deep of the eternal fountains that are behind, and after that, look forward," emphasising that the future emerges through regeneration rather than rupture. Debroy interpreted this as a reminder that Viksit Bharat must be grounded in continuity: building on civilisational depth while modernising institutions, laws, and policies to meet contemporary challenges.

Sustained growth Challenge

Quantitative benchmarks, in his analysis, were essential starting points. In 2024, India's GDP stood at $3.9 trillion by exchange rates and $14.6 trillion in PPP terms, with per capita income of $2,700 (exchange rate) and $10,120 (PPP). Extrapolated forward, India could approach $20 trillion in aggregate GDP by 2047, with per capita income of at least $10,000. In more ambitious scenarios, India might cross the World Bank's current high-income threshold of $13,846.

These transitions would imply a sharp decline in poverty, structural shifts from agriculture to industry and services, and India's movement from medium to high human development. Yet, he stressed, the challenge was less about projection and more about sustaining 7-8 per cent real growth for two decades, despite the natural tendency of growth to decelerate as economies mature.