Nations Saving Grace

UEFA could never be accused of favouring the smaller nations when devising the qualifying procedures of the Champions League.

- Gordon Cairns

Yet such is the radical departure of allowing a route to the European Championship through the new Nations League, this is exactly what they have done. Two teams placed in the lower half of UEFA’s rankings are guaranteed places in Euro 2020. Bizarrely, Scotland’s failure to reach this summer’s World Cup has actually greatly improved their chances of qualifying for the next international tournament by being placed in the third group of nations.

The new competition, designed to replace friendlies with matches that have a competitive edge, is split into four leagues based on UEFA’s rankings at October 2017. Rather than having a hierarchical qualification process, this competition is uniquely horizontal. Each league winner avoids playing other winners higher up the ranking, instead playing teams judged to be at the same level to determine who goes through. But the catch is that the teams are placed due to a ranking achieved a year before the tournament begins. This favours countries on an upward trajectory such as Serbia, who have qualified for the World Cup but remain in the third pot, yet punishes Holland, in the same group as Germany and France. The qualifying place for the bottom group winner is groundbreaking; like League Two champions Portsmouth entering the Europa League.