Referendum on Cash Ban

If early polling is anything to go by, then the assembly elections across five states could mean an all or nothing scenario for the BJP

- Sanjay Kapoor

BY 10 AM on March 11, the faces of change would be visible. Polling trends from five assemblies would be available, and experts at various TV studios would be calling the elections. What they would also be discussing animatedly are the implications of the verdict on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the regional parties: Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Akali Dal and much more. In just a matter of a few hours on March 11, the country would also know what 160 million voters scattered across five states think of Prime Minister Modi’s decision to demonetise high-value currency notes.

If the mood in the country is anything to go by, then the results will not just announce the culmination of a political process flagged off by the state elections, but the beginning of new agitation, alliances and arrangements to take on the BJP in 2019. A loss in Uttar Pradesh for BJP, which is not beyond the pale of doubt, despite its sensational win in the 2014 Parliament elections, could seriously create confusion in the party about its policies and the ability of Modi’s leadership to lead them to power in 2019. What would also take a hit is the belief that BJP can come to power in different parts of the country led by the two gentlemen from Gujarat- Narendra Modi and Amit Shah- without declaring a chief ministerial face. This strategy proved a disaster in Delhi and Bihar, where the party got a severe drubbing and could be tested on this issue again in UP, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur.