Quad's Challenges In Bay Of Bengal

As the military takeover in Myanmar has provided a further opportunity to China to enhance its profile in the region, the Quad partners (India, Japan, Australia and the United States) have to reimagine their strategic plans for the Bay of Bengal area taking into consideration the importance of three regional stakeholders namely Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, argues P M HEBLIKAR

- P M Heblikar

The military coup in Myanmar (February 01, 2021) has significantly altered the strategic power balance in South East Asia. This has caught the western powers and other stake-holders off-guard, thus creating grounds for urgent reappraisal of policies for the Indo-Pacific region. It is clearly a major challenge to the Biden administration and it remains to be seen as to how the US and its allies react to the situation in Myanmar in the coming weeks.

The important regional players namely India, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN and China too will have to assess its impact on their respective national security interests and longterm objectives since all of them have major stakes at play in Myanmar.

It is obvious that the Myanmar military and China have emerged stronger from this development. Both countries are interdependent on each other to meet their respective political and strategic objectives. The manner by which Senior General Min Aung Hlaing assumed the powers of head of state is a matter for debate. Equally controversial are his assurances of holding elections within next twelve months. The transition to multiparty democracy has been dealt a severe blow from which a recovery is not expected in near future.

The next several weeks will see Myanmar enter into uncharted waters as the opposition to the military will graduate to the next level employing technology and unconventional methods to compete for mass support and influence. The military is unfazed by international reactions to it seizing power on Feb 01, 2020. The opposition to the military coup has been unprecedented and has surprised the authorities. Ten ethnic national organisations that signed a ceasefire agreement with the government have walked away from it and pledged support to the pro-democracy parties. The powerful Buddhist clergy have thrown in their lot against the government.