THE OUTLOOK FOR GOLD IN 2022

As bond yields go up, which is quite likely in a scenario of tightening monetary policy, the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset like gold goes up, and its price tends to weaken.

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Shri V.P.Nandakumar MD & CEO Manappuram Finance Ltd.

Gold ended the year 2021 with its price about 4% lower than its opening price for the year, closing at US$1,806/oz. This was despite a rally towards the year-end against the backdrop of the rapid spread of the Omicron variant which added to uncertainties. However, it was not enough to offset the weakness for much of the first half of the year. Rising opportunity costs (a booming equity market and higher bond yields) contributed to gold’s negative performance in the first half of the year, while rising risks, especially higher inflation, pushed gold higher towards the end of the year.

As newly developed vaccines were rolled out early in 2021, there was a renewed sense of optimism among investors and stock markets rallied. This had a negative impact on gold price as it led to outflows from gold ETFs. The rest of the year was essentially a tug of war between competing forces. The emergence of new variants of the Corona virus together with the persistence of inflation gave renewed momentum to the demand for gold, pushing its prices up. On the other hand, the prospect of rising interest rates and a stronger US dollar continued to be headwinds for gold.

Outlook for 2022