TOP 10 NATIONAL LEAGUE- ADJUSTING WITH THE TIMES

BA Grades receive an updated prospect risk assessment scale

- JJ COOPER

When we rolled out BA Grades in 2012, we described the addition as the biggest change to the Prospect Handbook since we first published the book in 2001.

Now, it's time for a refresh.

This year, we're making the biggest tweak to the process since BA Grades debuted.

Details will follow in a moment, but to sum- marize our goal: We're trying to reset the base- line for how we account for risk to more accu- rately reflect what we are attempting to convey.

We casually refer to them as "BA Grades," but in reality our grades have always had two vital components: a future role grade and the likeli- hood of achieving that grade.

The number component is an attempt to summarize the likely projected role of a pros- pect on the familiar 20-80 scouting scale.

■An 80 player is one we expect to see in Cooperstown one day.

■A 70 is one of the best players in the game and someone who may reach the Hall of Fame.

■A 60 is a top-tier regular who likely makes All-Star Game appearances.

■A 50 is a solid regular for a competitive team and someone who would not look out of place in a postseason lineup.

■A 45 is a regular for a second-division team or one with a smaller role on a competitor.

■A 40 is an MLB role player.

A role grade paints a picture of a player's upside, but it does not account for the likelihood of that upside being achieved.

Risk assessment is crucial when comparing, for example, a tooled-up Dominican Summer League star with a Triple-A player ready to contribute. Or when comparing a position play- er to a pitcher. Or when comparing a player who missed a year to injury with one who has a long track record of good health.

When BA Grades were introduced in 2012, we settled on “high” as the baseline risk for all players, because, well, prospects carry high risk when compared with major leaguers.