Going Rogue

A massive study may improve the prediction of dangerous rogue waves

- By Avery Schuyler Nunn

UNDER A HAZY GRAY SKY on the first day of 1995, the Draupner natural gas platform in the North Sea was struck by something that had long been relegated to maritime folklore: an 84-foot wall of water that hurled massive equipment across the deck and warped steel supports. The “Draupner wave” provided the first hard evidence that rogue waves were very real.

Three decades later scientists have unraveled some of the physics behind these anomalies. A recent analysis of 27,505 North Sea wave measurements, recorded over 18 years by laser sensors on an oil and gas platform, reveals how ocean waves’ quirky natural physics can produce a lone giant when multiple series (or “trains”) of waves intersect. The study, published in Scientific Reports, describes how this phenomenon can amplify a specific wave’s height compared with that of its neighbors. It also identifies a distinct “fingerprint” in the wave data—a repeating interference pattern that appears when two or more wave trains converge and reinforce one another—signaling when a rogue giant is most likely to emerge.