El Niño, amplified

As a possible super El Niño looms in 2026, scientists warn of devastations that may extend into 2027

- AKSHIT SANGOMLA

THE PLANET is hurtling towards an El Niño during the northern hemisphere summer of 2026. Forecasts suggest it could rival the episode of 1876-78, the strongest on record, which triggered droughts and famines across large parts of the world and contributed to the deaths of 50 million people. On June 2, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there was an 80 per cent chance of El Niño conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific between June and August, rising to a 90 per cent chance that it would persist until at least November. A day earlier, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put the odds of El Niño emerging between May and July at 82 per cent, and estimated a 96 per cent chance that it would continue through the northern hemisphere winter of 2026-27.

El Niño is typically associated with higher global temperatures, below-average rainfall across many regions, excessive rainfall in others and an increased likelihood of extreme weather. However, no two El Niño events are identical. Their effects depend on the pattern of ocean warming in the tropical Pacific, the state of the atmosphere and natural climate variability.