Will Reform gain traction in the Senedd? Wales to 'wait and see'

Nigel Farage gains a voice in the Senedd but will more follow? Political editor Ruth Mosalski assesses Laura Anne Jones' move from official opposition to one-woman band as the Senedd's first Reform UK MS

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WELL, no-one expected that. In the Senedd’s recess period, without voters marking a single X on a piece of paper, Reform UK has its first Senedd Member.

Regional Senedd Member Laura Anne Jones wasn’t the first name anyone expected to jump ship and join Reform UK. In fact, the rumour swirling round the showground in the lead-up to Nigel Farage’s press conference was that it was Andrew RT Davies, the ousted Welsh Conservative group leader, who would be defecting despite his previous assurances he was “born blue and I'll be blue when I die”.

However, Tuesday's announcement is a big step for Reform UK. The party has had some success with defections and council by-elections but this is both high-profile, and gives them a voice in the Senedd.

In next May’s Senedd election, Reform UK is now regularly being projected to take seats, and could even be the largest party. The new system makes it very hard for any party to form a majority, but the party with the most seats will be in a position of power.

They will not only be negotiating with other parties in the hope of doing a deal - although whether anyone would choose to work with Reform is a question in itself - but they will likely be putting someone forward to be voted on as first minister.