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New poll shows lead for Reform
Western Mail
|February 14, 2026
A NEW poll has projected Reform UK could be the biggest party in Senedd after May's election.
The newly-released poll puts Reform UK ahead of Plaid Cymru by seven points and if it was reflected in the result it would give the party 36 seats, with Plaid sitting behind on 26.
The voting intention poll, conducted by More in Common, is also disastrous for Labour - as many of the recent polls have been.
The party would go from being the biggest party, and governing Wales, to be being third. It suggests Labour's support in Wales has halved since the last Senedd election in 2021.
The poll also projects Plaid Cymru would need to form a “rainbow coalition” made up of multiple parties to form a government. If the polling was reflected in the results Plaid and Labour would not be able to form a government together.
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