Voting in Hindi heartland likely to be semi-final for 2024 elections

Both BJP and Congress will be tested on their ability to overcome anti-incumbency fatigue and several other issues.

- RAHUL CHHABRA

The electoral semi-final in five states before the big fight during the parliamentary election in 2024 will test both the two national parties-BJP and Congresson their ability to tide over incumbency fatigue and test the effectiveness of emotive issues like Hindutva, welfare, corruption, women's quota, agrarian distress, Mandal politics or nationwide caste census and revival of the old pension scheme.

The BJP's new experiment of fielding heavyweights, including Union ministers and MPs, while not naming a chief ministerial face in Assembly elections reflects a churn within the party. This time round, the party's thinktank announced candidates for a section of seats, including those reserved for SC/ ST, in some states before the announcement of the voting dates. It also is trying to test its election machinery's capability to win back reserved seats which it had failed to retain in the last outing.

The Congress is eager to build on the success in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka Assembly elections, but issues like corruption against the party's sitting chief ministers and internal party frictions pose a big challenge. Overcoming the regional hold of parties like BRS in Telangana and MNF in Mizoram also may not be easy.

CASTE FACTOR

In the three major Hindi heartland states-Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh-the road to chief minister's office passes through constituencies dominated by SC and ST voters. The reserved seats in these three states add up to 520 and out of these 180-almost 35 per cent-are reserved. In 2018 elections, the Congress managed to win two-thirds of these 520 seats. In Rajasthan, the BJP had won 32 out of the 34 reserved seats in 2013 but in 2018 it could win only 11. The Congress pocketed 21.