THE FADING CREDIBILITY OF 'MINIMUM' DETERRENCE

India has used its minimum deterrence and no first use nuclear postures to drive international confidence. But both increasingly seem inadequate for its dire security needs.

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In May 1998, India’s Pokhran-II tests redrew the global strategic map, announcing its arrival as a declared nuclear-weapon state.

The doctrine that followed was one of prudence and responsibility: “Credible Minimum Deterrence” built on a “No First Use” (NFU) pledge. For over two decades, this posture has been the bedrock of India’s strategic stability, a guarantee of its sovereignty. But today, that hard-won deterrence is facing an unprecedented, pincer-like squeeze, and its credibility is eroding.

Caught between a rapidly expanding, high-tech Chinese arsenal and a doctrinally aggressive, tactical-minded Pakistan, India’s “minimum” posture is being dangerously outmatched.

The strategic realities of 2025 are not those of 1998, The “minimum?” is no longer “credible” when faced with China’s “massive” and Pakistan's “full spectrum.

This new, harsh reality demands a sober and urgent reexamination of India’s entire nuclear doctrine and force structure, before its strategic deterrent is weakened beyond repair.

CHINA’S NUCLEAR BREAKOUT

The most significant challenge to India’s deterrence is the sheer, unadulterated math of China’s nuclear expansion. India’s “minimum deterrence” was always predicated on an adversary that, while larger, was also believed to maintain a “minimum” arsenal. That assumption is now dangerously obsolete.

According to the latest January 2025 estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s nuclear arsenal has swelled to an estimated 600 warheads. In the same period, India’s stockpile is estimated at 180. This gap of 420 warheads is stark, but the most alarming statistic is the rate of change. In just one year, from 2024 to 2025, China is estimated to have added 100 warheads to its arsenal. India added eight.

Forecasts suggest China’s warhead count might exceed 1,000 by 2030.