The Beleaguerment of Bangladesh

Muhammad Yunus believes he can play China against India, the US, but having burnt their fingers in CPEC and CMEC, the Chinese, while keen on the Bay of Bengal, are also wary.

- HINDOL SENGUPTA

Like Caesar, Bangladesh's Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus should have been warned about the ides of March before his visit to China on 26-29 March.

Perhaps he was enthused by the welcome he received, including traveling to Beijing on a plane sent by China. Perhaps he saw it as payback for not receiving an invitation from India, the destination he wanted for his first bilateral visit. Whatever the instigation, his comments on a landlocked Indian Northeast, and Bangladesh as the "guardian of the ocean," raise strategic questions about how beleaguered Yunus really feels at the moment.

The Chinese would have seen these comments for what they were—Yunus trying hard to, at least in narrative terms, balance Indian concerns, and pressure from the US, using the China card. For, among other things, Yunus is wrong.

It is unclear how Bangladesh can claim to be the guardian of the ocean, meaning the Bay of Bengal, in this case, with two refurbished Ming Class diesel-electric submarines from China, and a handful of corvettes and frigates. This claim is particularly unwieldy considering the Bay of Bengal has always been India's backwaters and its domain of influence.

India has two naval commands in the region—the Eastern Naval Command at Vishakhapatnam, and the Andaman and Nicobar Command at the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. In fact, the Greater Nicobar Islands are now being redeveloped in one of the biggest maritime projects in India to create an international business, trade, and security hub. India has also built Project Varsha, a naval base to house its SSBNs (nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines) in the Bay of Bengal, and its extensive naval forces are the first port of call for any issue in these waters.