Pak-Saudi mutual defence treaty is bad news for India

In a protracted Pakistan-India war, Saudi Arabia, especially using its wealth, could shift the balance of power in favour of the former. The agreement also has implications for China's weapons exports.

- GUERMANTES LAILARI

On 17 September 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA).

A core provision of the treaty is a collective defence clause that is like the NATO Treaty Article 5: any aggression against one country "shall be considered an aggression against both."

In an article I wrote for The Sunday Guardian in April 2022, I argued that a country has three choices: be under a nuclear umbrella, make your own bomb, or be afraid.

This article will highlight the SMDA's key points, and briefly discuss its implications regionally and globally.

The first observation is that the Saudis' chief incentive to seek the SMDA is Iran's nuclear weapons development program. Although most Middle East military analysts believe that Israel has a stockpile of nuclear weapons, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's (KSA) leaders never seriously worried about them.

Second, since KSA now is under an Islamic Republic of Pakistan's (IRP) nuclear umbrella, KSA will no longer seek to be under an American nuclear umbrella. Recall that in September 2023, before the 7 October Hamas pogrom against Israel, the Biden administration declared that the US and KSA were discussing a mutual defence treaty that was similar to US defence treaties with Japan and South Korea that included a nuclear umbrella.

On 4 October 2023, 20 Democrat Senators sent a letter to President Biden outlining their concerns about the proposed de fence treaty with the KSA.

The Senators noted that KSA is "an authoritarian regime which regularly undermines U.S. interests in the region, has a deeply concerning human rights record, and has pursued an aggressive and reckless foreign policy agenda."