INVASION OF UKRAINE HAS BEEN A DISASTER FOR RUSSIA'S ECONOMY

Ukraine strikes and Western sanctions have severely weakened Russia's economy and growth.

- JOHN DOBSON

Last Monday, Ukraine launched a major drone attack over 14 regions in Russia, as well as Crimea and around the Black Sea. Targets included a major ammunition plant, a key oil terminal and an important weapons depot.

One goal was the Sverdlov ammunition plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region of western Russia, which supplies Russian forces attacking Ukraine with aviation and artillery ordnance, aviation bombs, antiaircraft and antitank weapons. Throughout this year, Ukrainian drones and missiles have successfully targeted many Russian oil refineries. According to BBC Verify, 21 out of Russia's 38 large oil refineries have been hit and damaged over the past 12 months, resulting in an economic cost to the Kremlin of up to $10 billion, if you take into account the damage, downtime and lost revenue. Because of the strikes, Russia's refinery production has dropped by around 10 percent compared to earlier in the year, leading to shortages at the pump as well as sharp increases in price. An alarmed Russian government has taken steps to ban or restrict exports in order to conserve supply for domestic markets.

Damage caused by Ukrainian strikes is just one factor affecting Russia's economy, brought about by Vladimir Putin's rash and impetuous decision to attack his neighbour more than three years ago. As the war continues, Russia's economy is deteriorating fast. The World Bank recently revised its forecasts and growth estimates for Russia downwards from earlier in the year, with GDP growth downgraded from 1.4 percent to just 0.9. For 2026, instead of an earlier prediction of 1.2 percent, the bank now predicts 0.8, and for 2027 it's now 1 percent instead of 1.2. If you consider that before the invasion, Russia's GDP was regularly in excess of 4 percent, it's not difficult to understand the disastrous effect the war has had on the economy.