Increasing Hindu Vote Consolidation May Help BJP in Bengal

As expected in a Muslim-majority area, last week, the Trinamool Congress comfortably won the byelection to the Kaliganj Assembly constituency in West Bengal's Nadia district, with a margin of more than 50,000 votes over its BJP rival.

- Suprotim Mukherjee

However, a deep dive into the numbers throws up an interesting indication—rising Hindu consolidation—that could reshape West Bengal's political future in the Assembly elections due next year.

The byelection was necessitated by the death of the sitting Trinamool Congress legislator, Nasiruddin Ahmed, in February this year. Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee nominated his daughter, Alifa Ahmed, who defeated her BJP rival Ashish Ghosh. Alifa Ahmed polled 102,759 votes, which represented a vote share of 55.15%. BJP's Ashish Ghosh got 52,710 votes (28.29% vote share), while the Congress candidate (backed by the Left) got 28,348 votes (15.21% vote share).

The Trinamool Congress held up this victory, and the fact that the BJP's vote share had decreased from 30.91% in 2021 to 28.29% in the by-poll while its own share had increased, as proof of Mamata Banerjee's continuing popularity.

The Trinamool touted the 1.8% increase in its vote share and the decline of 2.62% in the BJP's vote share to claim that while Mamata Banerjee's popularity had not only remained intact but also increased, while the BJP's "communal politics" had been rejected by the people of Bengal.

The Congress-Left combine also drew solace from the fact that its vote share increased by 3.23% (from 11.98% in 2021 to 15.21% this time).

However, a close analysis of the results of the byelection reveals that a substantial consolidation of Hindu votes has happened in Kaliganj.

Of the 309 polling booths in the Kaliganj Assembly constituency, Hindus form a majority of the electorate in 109 polling booths. Hindus form a very small percentage of the electorate in the remaining 200 polling booths.